ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The ECB looks unlikely to hike in April, but markets price 25bp by June and at least one more hike later in 2026. While largely driven by oil prices, its extreme volatility can also...

Markets are increasingly pre-empting a positive outcome as the US and Iran prepare for a new round of talks. We still think caution is warranted and the balance of risks for the dollar now looks...

The rebound in the dollar proved very short-lived. Markets remain keen to jump into the de-escalation trade, and some tentative signs that the US Hormuz blockade is leading to a new round of talks...

US equities and credit have almost entirely recovered to prices from February despite the surge in energy costs and a significant tightening of financial conditions. The positive market sentiment...

Energy markets opened higher after the US threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of weekend talks with IranEnergy – Oil Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Blockade...

That US-Iran peace talks failed to deliver a sustainable ceasefire should perhaps not come as a surprise. And while a US naval blockade will push oil higher, that is a better outcome for the...

Gasoline price hikes prompted a jump in headline inflation, but core pressures were more benign than feared. We have much greater confidence that inflation will be transitory this time around,...

Today, we’ll find out how much US inflation jumped in March. We expect almost one percentage point, to 3.4%, in line with consensus. Core CPI should only rise modestly, and the Fed may not give...

Oil extended gains for a second session amid fresh Middle East supply concernsEnergy – Oil Supported by Ongoing Supply RisksOil extended gains for a second session amid fresh Middle East supply...

There is lots of noise out there about the ceasefire, and indeed something of a vacuum till negotiations actually begin on Saturday. But we continue to see enough to distil an outcome that ultimately...

The Iran conflict and energy price surge have shaken ECB rate expectations, causing market uncertainty and shifts to safer assets. Money and funding markets show limited stress, but as overall...

With the Fed buying bills and bank reserves steady-to-rising, repo circumstances have slowly tamed. The effective funds rate remains elevated, though, and the war had pushed a small basis premium...

Higher oil prices led to a significant repricing of money market curves, but whilst money market spreads have shown some movement since the start of the Iran conflict, the overall picture looks...

The US dollar has found some firmer ground after Iran said the ceasefire had been violated yesterday. Fresh positive headlines on peace negotiations and Hormuz reopening should still asymmetrically...

Optimism over the ceasefire faded after Tehran said several terms of the agreement had been breachedEnergy – Oil Rebounds Amid Hormuz UncertaintyOil prices rebounded on Thursday after suffering...

Lower oil prices help rates reduce hawkish takes on central banks, resulting in diminished expectations for an April hike from the ECB or BoE, and a re-build in a Fed rate cut rationale. But a...